Melbourne Cup and VRC carnival tips

[spartacus]

Please offer tips for carnival; good time of year but always better with a winner.

I am leaning towards red cadeaux at this stage; 2nd last year; and meets Dunaden 2.5kg better than last year, although has never beaten him at three starts.

 

[Neddysmith]

Final acceptances are yet to be out for derby day, but when they are I will have a look and do a little write up, as for Melbourne cup in the past few years I have always used the Geelong cup as a good form line, but not sure about this year, Gatewood was pretty impressive so may have a couple of dollars on it, but really liked Americains run in the Caulfield Cup and you can't really go past Dunadens run either, with Ethiopia looking to be the Aussies best chance.

 

[spartacus]

American will be hard to beat if track slow or worse, dont think he will beat Dunaden if dry (and others).

Geelong Cup hard to line up, as basically a 600m sprint home.

I would like to think Aust horses have chance.

Ethiopia probably best chance. Here are his splits from cox plate. Last 1800m onwards

4th

Ethiopia (6)1:48.92 (5) 1:37.09 (2) 1:25.54 (2) 1:13.41 (2) 49.10 (1) 37.37 (2) 25.80 (2) 13.19 (4) 2:04.81

Pretty fast pace which wrote off a few (including Green Moon who was also caught wide).

 

[harry1970]

Good mate of mine is a part owner of Zabillionaire which has a run in Melbourne Cup. Might have a few bucks on a place as it will pay pretty good odds if it can run third. He's pretty pumped about hanging out with the other owners - if he gets lucky he might score a kiss off Camilla....lol

Still, this is a hard race to pick with such a large field. Americain looks ok but it is carrying some serious weight.

Will probably go with Ethiopia.

 

[Bella]

Good mate of mine is a part owner of Zabillionaire which has a run in Melbourne Cup. Might have a few bucks on a place as it will pay pretty good odds if it can run third. He's pretty pumped about hanging out with the other owners - if he gets lucky he might score a kiss off Camilla....lol

Still, this is a hard race to pick with such a large field. Americain looks ok but it is carrying some serious weight.

Will probably go with Ethiopia.

Harry! I have cash. I need a decisive tip before handing my hard earned dollars over to the TAB! lol Can someone post the lineup for the Cup?

 

[spartacus]

It would be some feat if Zabillionaire ran a place, but you never know.

 

[Neddysmith]

if he gets lucky he might score a kiss off Camilla....lol

Still, this is a hard race to pick with such a large field. Americain looks ok but it is carrying some serious weight.

Will probably go with Ethiopia.

Would prefer a kiss from Francesca any day of the week or night would not matter......

As for America in I think he is more then capable of carrying the weight, he is a year older and looking to be an improved horse from last year when ran 4th, might come down to baried draw, but does have Ollie on board this year so that could be the difference...

 

[harry1970]

It would be some feat if Zabillionaire ran a place, but you never know.

as I say, it might warrant a small bet cause it will pay a shitload for any place. But you never know, could get a lucky run and lucky draw...

 

[harry1970]

Harry! I have cash. I need a decisive tip before handing my hard earned dollars over to the TAB! lol Can someone post the lineup for the Cup?

Lineup isn't final yet, it's always a very hard race to tip because the field is so large.

Will post up my thoughts after the weekends racing.

 

[Bella]

Lineup isn't final yet, it's always a very hard race to tip because the field is so large.

Will post up my thoughts after the weekends racing.

Excellent. I'll be watching

 

[harry1970]

As for America in I think he is more then capable of carrying the weight, he is a year older and looking to be an improved horse from last year when ran 4th, might come down to baried draw, but does have Ollie on board this year so that could be the difference...

Ollie is a ledgend in the big races. Thinking trifecta of Americain, Dunaden and Lucas Cranach....not sure....

 

[Neddysmith]

OK guys tomorrow is Bendigo Cup, has anyone else looked at the form? I have quickly and liking Puissancce De'Lune, Silent Surround and Sky Raider, but will need a little closer look at the form tomorrow to make a firm decision....

 

[spartacus]

Yeah i looked at Bendigo cup field. crap race this year so will give it a miss.

Derby fields worst I ever remember in terms of lack of top names. And that goes for last 30 years.

 

[Neddysmith]

Yeah i looked at Bendigo cup field. crap race this year so will give it a miss.

Derby fields worst I ever remember in terms of lack of top names. And that goes for last 30 years.

Yeah i was thinking the same, except for the punting comp we are running for work i think i will sit the Bendigo Cup out.

Although will have to have a crack on Derby Day, best race day of the year by far.....Although as you said some big names will be missing, but in saying this there have been a fair few retirements and injuries to some big names in the lead up to the carnival which has effected this.

 

[spartacus]

Yes, as long as we an get a winner does not matter lack of depth.

I think i had woorim at $14 in last last year, which resulted in a great day, a rare good Derby day for me given the usual depth of top class horses.

i am warming to Red Cadeuax though, but will wait to after Saturday.

Will have a small bet on Fiumicino in bendigo cup and hope it runs a place at least.

 

[Stiffy]

still some good odds even on Americian etc. How much will they shorten?

 

[spartacus]

its got me stuffed why americain is favorite. I expect its connections to start whinging about dry track in next 3-4 days.

 

[Neddysmith]

Melbourne Cup always has good odds even the favourites will generally pay over $5 due to amount of money on the race and then amount of money for different horses.

 

[spartacus]

yes, got 4 to 1 on Lets Elope when she was a certainty, as long as she did not fall down, one of my special horses over years of ups and downs.

 

[Stiffy]

harder than a broken nose to pick. I guess that keeps the odds good.